The Bank of Spain estimates that between 67% and 69% of Spanish non-financial companies will have financing needs between April and December this year, so that they could exceed 230 billion euros as a result of the crisis of the covid- 19, a figure that estimates that it could be covered in three quarters thanks to public guarantees for loans to companies. In addition, 40% of companies have been able to deal with the situation without registering a liquidity deficit or a deterioration in their financial situation.
This emerges from the report “The liquidity needs and solvency of Spanish non-financial companies after the disruption of covid-19”, prepared and published this week by the supervisory body through a simulation exercise of the liquidity needs of the derivative companies, based on three alternative macroeconomic scenarios, both of the possible deficits generated by the evolution of the operating activity and of the investments in fixed assets and the amortization of financial debt.
The agency notes that the paralysis of much of the economic activity by the containment measures of covid-19 is causing a sharp reduction in revenue for a very high proportion of Spanish companies, something that will mean that many of they will have to ask for new financial resources to deal with current payments and derivatives of their investment decisions in fixed assets and debt repayments.
Options include its liquid assets such as bank deposits, or recourse to the unavailable amount of credit lines, as well as external financing, such as bank loans, divestments or new capital contributions from members.
The estimate of the overall amount of the net liquidity needs of non-financial companies between April and December would be between 224,000 and 238 billion euros, depending on the scenario considered, at 90% for the amortization of the debt, being the contribution associated to the deficit generated by the activity of exploitation and by the investment in fixed assets comparatively lower.
The breakdown by quarter shows that the highest deficit would be generated between April and June (between 103 billion and 108 billion euros), while in the following quarters the amounts would be gradually reduced, as the activity gradually recovered. .
This declining profile is also explained by the fact that debt repayments are higher in the first quarter, given the concentration of maturities in the first months and the case that these are financed beyond 2020.
Between April and December 2020, between 67% and 69% of Spanish non-financial companies, depending on whether the scenario envisaged is that of early recovery or risk, would have liquidity needs, occupying between them between a 73% and 78% of workers in corporations. These percentages would be between 7 and 10 percentage points higher, respectively, in number of companies, and between 11 and 16 percentage points higher, in weight of employment, compared to those that would be recorded in a scenario without covid-19.
The report estimates that the guarantee programs would cover about three-quarters (between 71% and 75%, depending on the scenario) of the estimated liquidity needs of companies for the last three quarters of the year. ‘year. The rest of the deficit, between 56 billion and 70 billion euros, could be covered through other channels.