Rising Support for Irish Unity in Northern Ireland
Support for Irish unity has seen a significant uptick in Northern Ireland over the past three years, according to the latest opinion poll conducted by The Irish Times and the ARINS Project. Despite this increase, a clear majority of Northern Ireland residents still favor remaining part of the United Kingdom.
Poll Results Indicate Mixed Sentiments
While the poll data suggests that a border poll would likely be defeated in Northern Ireland and pass comfortably in the Republic of Ireland, a consistent trend over the past three years has shown a rise in support for Irish unity among Northern Ireland voters.
Shifting Dynamics Among Unionists
There are signs of increasing “losers’ consent” among unionists, meaning a growing willingness to accept the result of a referendum even if they would likely lose. Additionally, an increasing number of unionists support holding a border poll, possibly due to a perceived likelihood of winning a referendum if held now.
About the North and South Project
The North and South project is a collaborative effort between The Irish Times and the ARINS (Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South) project. This initiative, a joint venture between the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame in the United States, aims to provide unbiased information on the unification question.
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Trends show rise in support for Irish unity among Northern voters
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Methodology of the Opinion Polls
As part of the North and South research, two simultaneous opinion polls have been conducted annually for the last three years. These polls, carried out by Ipsos in the North and Ipsos B& A in the South, surveyed over 1,000 voters across both regions.
Voter Sentiments Across the Island
In the Republic of Ireland, almost two-thirds of voters consistently say they would support unification. In contrast, just under half of Northern Ireland respondents say they would vote against unity, with 34% indicating support for it.
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North and South: what we know now, and what we want to investigate in futureOpens in new window
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Breaking Down Support by Community
The pro-unity sentiment has seen a notable increase among Northern Catholics. In 2022, 55% of Catholics favored a united Ireland, rising to 63% in 2024. However,around 18% of Northern Catholics still oppose unity.
In marked contrast, Northern Protestants remain strongly opposed to Irish unity, with 82% against it and only 7% in favor. Despite this, there has been a shift towards openness regarding a border poll among Northern Protestants; 44% now favor it compared to 37% who oppose it.
Attitudes Towards a Possible Defeat
If a referendum were held and the pro-Union side lost, the proportion of Northern Protestants finding such an outcome “almost impossible to accept” has decreased over time. In 2022, 32% believed this, dropping to 20% in the latest poll.
The Future of the Unification Debate
The ARINS/Irish Times project continues to provide independent, unbiased insights into public opinion on the constitutional future of the island. It explores the factors influencing public opinion, their potential evolution, and the possible scenarios of a united Ireland.
Conclusion
The latest opinions reveal a nuanced landscape of support for Irish unity in Northern Ireland, marked by both promise and complexity. The increasing support among Northern Catholics and the openness of many unionists to discussing a border poll signal a changing dialogue. However, the deep-seated opposition from Northern Protestants remains a significant obstacle.