Regional Weather and Geophysical Update for Southeast Asia: December 16-22, 2024
Regional Summary
The ASEAN region has seen significant weather and geological changes over the past week, affecting countries across maritime Southeast Asia. This update provides a detailed overview, highlighting tropical cyclones, significant earthquakes, and volcanic activities in the region.
Highlight
Tropical Cyclone Pabuk, which has evolved from a tropical storm, poses ongoing concerns in the South China Sea, with projections indicating its eventual weakening into a tropical depression by December 26.
Hydro-Meteorological Conditions
Recent data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) reveals varied rainfall patterns across the maritime continent. Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Southern Thailand experienced medium to high rainfall over the past seven days.
As of December 23 at 1400 HRS UTC+7, Tropical Cyclone Pabuk was located northwest of the Truong Sa archipelago, with sustained winds of 62-74 km/h. Heavier rainfall is anticipated in areas affected by Pabuk’s passage, with the cyclone moving west-northwest at about 10 km/h.
The ASMC projects a shift in rainfall patterns in the coming week. Drier conditions are expected in parts of the western maritime continent, while southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the northeastern maritime continent will likely receive increased precipitation. Warmer temperatures are projected over the equatorial region, while cooler weather is on the horizon for central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia.
There is a noteworthy moderate increase in the probability of very heavy rainfall events in southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and northern Philippines. Similarly, extreme hot conditions are more likely to occur across much of the equatorial region in the coming week. Climate models suggest the possibility of La Niña conditions, potentially persisting as either ENSO neutral or short-lived La Niña from December 2024 to March 2025.
Geophysical Conditions
Nine significant earthquakes, each measuring greater than 5.0 on the Richter scale, were recorded throughout the region. These were identified by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
Volcanic activities were reported at several locations, including Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki, Ibu, and Semeru in Indonesia, and Kanlaon, Mayon, and Taal in the Philippines. These volcanic monitors have raised alert levels as a precautionary measure.
Outlook
The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre provides a comprehensive forecast for the upcoming week, predicting varying weather conditions across the region. Drier weather is expected in the western maritime continent, contrasting with wetter conditions in the southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the northeastern maritime continent.
Temperatures arere expected to fluctuate, with equatorial regions experiencing warmer weather and central and eastern mainland areas forecasting cooler temperatures. The chance for severe rainfall and extreme heat is higher in specific regions, requiring continued vigilance.
As weather patterns evolve, it is crucial to monitor these forecasts for timely preparedness. Citizens and authorities should remain cautious of potential risks associated with heavy rainfall and heatwaves.
Download the Full Report
For detailed analysis and regional assessments, download the full weekly report from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre.
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