Our betting guru Jones Knows thinks Newcastle can end their long wait for a win this season at Arsenal. Check out his predictions and betting angles on all 10 games.
Arsenal vs Newcastle, Saturday 12.30pm
That was a huge reality check for Arsenal at Liverpool last weekend.
A 4-0 drubbing identified just how far away Mikel Arteta’s side are from the top three teams in the Premier League. They are back in calmer waters on Saturday with a visit from Newcastle and the market expects them to win this quite comfortably, with 4/9 with Sky Bet on offer for a home win.
That is a price fraught with danger though, especially for those plotting an accumulator and getting involved with the early game.
I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Arteta’s boys in patches this season – the first halves vs Aston Villa and Leicester were top-four performances. However, this is a young side – the youngest average starting XI in the Premier League. Flakiness is expected.
Naturally, that will bring inconsistent results. I can’t trust them in this game against a team that looked refreshed and motivated against Brentford and one that possess genuine quality in the final third with Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin. I think the 11/2 with Sky Bet for Newcastle to win their first game this season is worth a swing.
Before Eddie Howe took over, Newcastle over the last five games had been averaging just 6.5 shots per 90 minutes, an expected goals figure of 0.57 and four corners. That rocketed to 23 shots, a 1.76 expected goals recording and eight corners in the 3-3 with Brentford, who have been one of the most efficient defences in the Premier League this season. Howe likes his team to play progressively and although it’s early days to be coming to sweeping conclusions, it was an encouraging start.
I wouldn’t put people off taking Newcastle on the double chance (to win or draw) at 15/8 with Sky Bet but their defensive record is appalling so I’ve got trust issues there. I’d rather head to the shots and corners market for a spot of value.
Arsenal have conceded nearly six corners per 90 minutes this season, including four or more in 10 of their 12 Premier League fixtures this season. With Howe’s men likely to attack, the 11/8 for them to win five or more corners looks the way to go.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
BETTING ANGLE: Newcastle to win five or more corners (11/8 with Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The nature of this job means I’m going to be wrong on regular occasions. It comes with the territory.
But I’m not sure I’ve ever been so wrong in predicting with confidence that a low-scoring first-half was on the cards between Burnley and Palace last weekend. There were five goals, with Palace scoring more goals in 45 minutes (3) than they had achieved in their previous 11 first halves this season (2). I’m going to file that occurrence as an anomaly and stick to my theory that Patrick Vieira is all about keeping things controlled and tight early on in matches.
And, what we saw from Steven Gerrard’s Villa last weekend is that he wants exactly the same as he bids to make the club a tough team to play against once again. There were just five shots in the first half of Villa’s win over Brighton, with Gerrard asking his back line to play almost as four central defenders in a very compact formation.
I’m expecting this game to get livelier after the break when Palace should take over. Take your pick on how to play the boring first-half angle. You can have 11/10 for the second half to produce more goals or simply back the 0-0 at half-time at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
BETTING ANGLE: 0-0 at half-time (7/4 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Southampton have the manager to cause Liverpool a serious problem in this game but he just hasn’t got the tools at his disposal. Ralph Hasenhuttl is giving everyone a timely reminder of talents this season, moulding a very average squad into a confident and impressive unit. When a top-six team takes a chance of him, it will be a decision they won’t regret.
Anyhow, it’s likely Jurgen Klopp’s men will out-ruthless Saints in both boxes, but I want to back the visitors to be smart enough to get into some dangerous positions with some dangerous counters. That has led me to showing some interest in the amount of corners Southampton can win at Anfield.
Southampton have won the third most corners in the Premier League this season (75), racking up a tally that reads: 8, 6. 8, 10, 7 from their last five fixtures as the attack-minded nature of their full-backs sees plenty of opportunities for corners being won down the channels.
Sky Bet’s line for them to win four or more at 11/10 certainly has a chance of landing. Saints managed to win five corners at Manchester City this season and have won four or more corners on their last three visits to Anfield under Hasenhuttl, including winning 11 in the 4-0 defeat in the 19/20 season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
BETTING ANGLE: Southampton to win four or more corners (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Norwich vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I’m having trouble with Wolves this season.
No side in the Premier League have picked up more points (16) in their last seven games than Bruno Lage’s team yet there does seem to be consistency issues. They were playing well and losing in the early stages of the season but have now gone the other way with slightly more pragmatic performances bringing home the points. That said, David Moyes had no complaints at West Ham’s 1-0 defeat at Molineux last weekend. Wolves were superior all over the pitch.
A repeat of those levels will be too hot for Norwich to handle. Back-to-back wins have pumped some life into their survival chances but Southampton goalkeeper Alex McCarthy was in very helpful mood for the Canaries’ 2-1 win last weekend. Dean Smith’s side only created an expected goals total of 0.79 which usually isn’t enough to win Premier League matches against top-10 opposition.
Lage’s style is a progressive one but it’s not likely to bring buckets of goals. One-goal margin wins do just fine with five of their six wins coming via that winning score.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Brighton vs Leeds, Saturday 5.30, live on Sky Sports
After four wins in their first five games, Brighton were entering conversations regarding a potential European push. However, the same old problems of last season have emerged in front of goal and now they are without a win in their last seven games – just Newcastle and Manchester United have taken fewer points in that time.
Leeds will be travelling with plenty of hope, but this has home win written all over it.
Brighton have an excellent recent record against Leeds, winning eight of the last nine meetings.
The way to beat Brighton is to defend with good cohesion and don’t allow them room to work their clever passing moves – as Aston Villa did brilliantly last weekend. There is absolutely no chance of Marcelo Bielsa following that pattern, which makes it’s easy to see a repeat result from the two fixtures between the teams last season. Brighton won both games without conceding (2-0 and 1-0), amassing a total expected goals total of 4.6 to Leeds’ 1.13 as they created lots of chances while keeping it tight up the other end.
Some of those chances are likely to fall to Tariq Lamptey, who is wildly overpriced in the player shots market with Sky Bet.
Since returning from a long lay-off, he has been playing much higher, almost as a right-winger. He had Brighton’s best chance of the game last weekend at Aston Villa but his effort was beaten away by Emi Martinez, and Lamptey was responsible for two shots at goal in the last home game with Newcastle. The triangle of him, Pascal Gross and Adam Webster found some dangerous positions in the defeat at Villa but space was limited.
They’ll find more here and Lamptey is a very strong wager to fire two shots on goal at 7/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
BETTING ANGLE: Tariq Lamptey to have two or more shots (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Brentford vs Everton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
The reality that Everton are outsiders for this encounter perfectly emphasises just where both these clubs are at. Brentford are 6/5 with Sky Bet for the win while injury-ravaged Everton are 12/5. Prices like that suggest that the market is expecting Brentford to finish above Everton this season – and it’s hard to argue with that.
Everton have no wins from their last six Premier League games (D2 L4) and are bottom of last-six match form guide. They will head to west London with no Abdoulaye Doucoure, Demarai Gray, Richarlison or Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Since the start of last season, only 21 of their 63 Premier League goals have been neither scored nor assisted by one of those four – that’s over 66 per cent of their total goal involvements missing for this game. Where are the goals going to come from? An Andros Townsend stunner, perhaps. That’s all I’ve got.
Brentford have lost four of their last five, but their performance data remains strong – especially in the attacking metrics. In that period, only Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City have amassed a bigger total expected goals for figure than Brentford (7.67). Although they will yet again miss the influence of goalkeeper David Raya, their extra firepower in the final third makes a home win easy to fancy.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Burnley vs Tottenham, Sunday 2pm
James Tarkowski – suspended for this one – will be missed by Burnley.
Since the start of the 17/18 season, Burnley have been without Tarkowski on 12 occasions in the Premier League. They failed to win any of those games. You get the feeling an Antonio Conte team should stand up well to running the physical gauntlet at Turf Moor, something this Spurs side have traditionally done. Tottenham are unbeaten in the last five meetings in all competitions against Burnley, losing just one of the last 15.
They have won 1-0 on their last two visits to Turf Moor. A third could be on the cards for Conte, whose reaction at full-time to the win over Leeds had the look of a man who wants results over performances at this stage of his tenure. He can get one here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Leicester vs Watford, Sunday 2pm
Leicester at 8/13 with Sky Bet? No thanks.
The blip is becoming a longer-term problem for Brendan Rodgers. Where is the usual Rodgers fizz in their attacks? They could have played long into the night in the defeat to Chelsea without scoring last weekend.
But more worryingly, Rodgers’ inability to sort out the defence should be sending the warning signs out to his bosses.
Since the start of March, only Newcastle have conceded more goals than Leicester (41) in the Premier League. One clean sheet in 18 Premier League matches is a tad shocking for a team with top-four ambitions. In that same period Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City have kept 11.
To me, it looks like the the spine of the team is perhaps entering a transitional period earlier than Rodgers expected. Kasper Schmeichel and Jamie Vardy’s powers are diminishing. And it might get worse before it gets better with a familiar face plotting their downfall in the visitors’ dugout. Of course, Claudio Ranieri famously spent 19 months as Leicester manager, leading them to Premier League title success in 2015/16.
He can lead Watford to a result playing the counter-attack style that achieved greatness at the King Power.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
BETTING ANGLE: Watford to win or draw (13/8 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm
For a team that have already beaten Liverpool and Man City (on penalties) this season, 9/1 with Sky Bet on an away win does seem a little generous here.
The Hammers are set up perfectly to cause City problems with their rapid ability to counter-attack and get behind defences. Tottenham, Southampton and Crystal Palace have all implemented that strategy this season against City and walked away with a positive result. And, let’s be honest, West Ham are streets ahead of those three teams in terms of points picked up over the past two seasons.
Am I brave enough to get involved? It’s whether I can forgive the Hammers for stinking the place out at Wolves last weekend. Michail Antonio and Declan Rice looked legless and the usual energetic supporting cast behind the striker lacked their usual creative spark.
There’s also the Man City factor to consider. They purred like a Ferrari on Wednesday against PSG.
If they can restrict Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi to an expected goals total of 0.78 then what chance do Jarrod Bowen and Pablo Fornals stand?
The answer is: I’m not brave enough. City to edge it.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Chelsea vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30, live on Sky Sports
This could be the last game Manchester United lose before Christmas.
Sensible and grown-up football tactics were employed in midweek against Villarreal and hey ho, a clean sheet was banked and their frightening array of attacking players took over in the final quarter. Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Young Boys, Norwich, Brentford and Brighton are all up next. United might just catch fire.
I can see United being hard to beat here, too. However, this Chelsea side just find ways to win. They are a machine.
I can swerve the 4/7 with Sky Bet for a home win though and go hunting for some juice in the player prop markets.
Chelsea’s ability to find goals from all over the pitch has yet to really be taken into account by the markets.
Thirteen of Chelsea’s 30 Premier League goals have been scored by defenders – no other team has had more than four goals from defenders.
There is an array of angles to consider in the shots and goals market for Chelsea’s players. With Harry Maguire missing, United will be vulnerable from set pieces. That makes Antonio Rudiger (9/1 with Sky Bet), Thiago Silva (8/1 with Sky Bet) and Trevoh Chalobah (9/1 with Sky Bet) all runners in the anytime goals market. Rudiger, who loves a strike from distance too, has also managed at least a shot on goal in his last 11 appearances across all competitions and has had two shots or more in five of his last eight Premier League matches. That’s a 5/2 shot with Sky Bet to happen again and is a great slice of value.
Reece James is also a must-back in the shots markets but this time in the shots on target selection. James is Chelsea’s Premier League top goalscorer this season with four goals as the quality of his attacking play has catapulted to another level. He has a striker’s instinct for goal from wing-back – just look at his effort vs Juventus in midweek. It was outrageous.
James has had seven shots on target in his last five games across all competitions and averages 0.8 shots on target per 90 minutes this season. Sky Bet have kindly priced up both the James and Rudiger angles as a very tasty 11/1 shot.
A price which is oozing with value.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
BETTING ANGLE: Reece James to have one or more shots on target & Antonio Rudiger to have two or more shots (11/1 with Sky Bet)