PGA Awards 2025: A Harsh Reality Check for ‘Nickel Boys’ and ‘Sing Sing’

The PGA Awards 2025 nominations were a mixed bag for some high-profile Oscar contenders. Films like Nickel Boys and Sing Sing found themselves on the losing end as they struggled to secure a place in the Best Picture race.

The PGA Awards vs. Academy of Motion Pictures

Interestingly, the PGA Awards have historically served as an accurate predictor of the Best Picture nominees due to their nomination process mirroring that of the Academy. Both organizations use a preferential ballot system with ten slots, making the PGA Awards a significant early indicator.

Past Predictions: PGA’s Track Record

In 2024, the PGA Awards predicted the exact nominees for Oscars, highlighting the importance of this awards body in the film industry’s award season. This pattern is not uncommon: in recent years, the American Film Institute (AFI) Awards have also shown remarkable accuracy in predicting the Best Picture contenders, with only international films occasionally exempt from their nominations.

For example, AFI nominated May December and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse last year, instead of Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, which were eventually nominated for Oscars. This discrepancy can be attributed to the international nature of the latter films, as they were not produced in the United States.

The Contenders in the Best Picture Race

Based on the PGA Awards and AFI nominations, certain films stand out as strong Best Picture contenders for the upcoming Oscar season. These include A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked.

Interestingly, The Substance, a body horror film that premiered at Cannes, missed inclusion on the AFI list. Its exclusion could be due to its French production status. However, the film’s timely peak in popularity, especially after Demi Moore’s Golden Globe win, suggests a strong possibility of a Best Picture nomination.

The ‘September 5’ Dilemma

September 5, a film about the kidnapping and murder of the Israeli team at the 1972 Munich Olympics by Black September, is a tricky contender. Despite being praised by critics and eventually acquired by Paramount, the film’s ensemble cast and less widely recognized lead, Peter Sarsgaard, pose challenges in its awards campaign.

However, the film’s timely narrative and critical acclaim might still push it towards a Best Picture nomination. Its focus on the enduring conflict between Israel and Palestine remains highly relevant today.

The PGA Awards and Wild Card Predictions

The PGA Awards can also reveal wild cards capable of surprising the industry. While Dune: Part Two is a frontrunner, it’s not guaranteed to make the Best Picture list. Conversely, films like