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The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is showing a little more optimism than expected for the global economy, hard hit by the coronavirus crisis. In these latest published forecasts, the OECD forecasts a decline limited to 4.5% of the overall gross domestic product this year, and an increase of 5% next year if all goes well.
If the worst has been avoided, it is thanks to the extraordinary public policies put in place by governments to support households and businesses, welcomes theOECD, which urges countries not to relax their efforts.
This year, global GDP should therefore decline by only 4.5%, against 6% initially forecast, before rebounding by 5% in 2021. But in the event of an upsurge in the pandemic or a tightening of health measures, this percentage could drop by two to three points next year, the organization warns. She also assumes that no vaccine will be available until next year.
However, these global forecasts hide large disparities between countries. The United States and China have weathered the shock better than others. China, moreover, which brought the pandemic under control earlier, is the only G20 country to experience positive growth (+ 1.8%). India, Mexico, or even South Africa, are themselves particularly hard hit economically, for lack of being able to control the virus.
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