Still can Theresa May hold. At the weekend she refused to step down despite pressure from the party. But she has to go. The only question is how long the Cabinet and the hardliners of the Conservative Party still allow the British Prime Minister. May no longer determines her own destiny. Others are doing so now: Cabinet colleagues and especially the hard Brexit supporters of the party, who fight among themselves to seize power over the further Brexit procedure.
Britain is in one of the worst crises since World War II. On Sunday afternoon, May's main Brexit supporters appeared at their county checkers and put pressure on them: Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, the two former Brexit ministers David Davis, Dominic Raab, the party leader and others reiterated what the head of government was in the past few days had to hear more often from their own ranks: they must go: United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum not delivered, the "humiliation" of the nation in Brussels and their televised speech that the deputies were to blame for the fiasco and prevented them from implementing the Brexit. Her time was up.
But in legal terms she was in a strong position, as Jacob Rees-Mogg's inner-party vote of no confidence failed in December, so she can not be dismissed by the party until the end of the year. She refused. But how to govern, if Cabinet, Party and Parliament refuse her followers?
She has to submit a new proposal
This morning she will make a proposal to the Cabinet to have Parliament vote tentatively on alternatives to their deal. They can choose from: their deal with the EU, a no-deal, a second referendum, a Brexit stop by revoking Article 50, a Canada Free Trade Agreement and a customs union with the EU or a member of the Internal Market (Norway model).
The hardliners in the Conservative Party, however, have already stressed that even if Parliament were to vote on alternatives to the Withdrawal Treaty, the vote would not be binding on the government. They want the Brexit – either their contract, or a no deal. If something else is agreed by the parliament, this is a new policy and must be approved by the new people.
The hardliners fear that conservative voters could punish the party at the next election for not having achieved Brexit in their eyes. That's why May and the Conservative Party shy away from voting for the EU Parliament. Nigel Farage has already announced that he will Tories because of the "big Brexit betrayal" with his new Brexit party in the European elections in May massively harm.
So for the hardliners who allow May, there's only one hard Brexit, and that's fast. Why? Because the party base thinks so. According to a poll by the polling institute YouGov, 65 percent of conservative voters still want Brexit, while 70 percent are against a soft Brexit, ie against a Norway model, against a customs union, against participating in the EU internal market. 64 percent of the Tories reject a second referendum no matter how many people demonstrate in London. 56 percent are in favor of a no deal, although the parliament rejected it. The fact that the majority of Britons are now in favor of staying in the EU does not matter to them.
Fear of the hardliners
Reports that the Cabinet was planning a coup this Monday and wanted to sell May were denied on Sunday. It would be so easy to find a solution. A top politician from the British government knows better about EU issues than most MPs, ministers and ministers. It is the deputy of May, David Lidington. He has six years experience as Europe Minister. That's why he is in favor of staying Great Britain in the EU, but supports the policy of the head of government and strengthened her on Sunday, apparently out of fear of the hardliners, his back.
He was – in addition to the Environment and Food Minister Michael Gove – already traded in the British media as a candidate, which could take over after a fall of May transitional government. Lidington could, according to the speculation, in parliament vote on alternatives and then head for a kind of Norway model.