education distribution explains the upset victory of the coalition


In the elections of May 18, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The coalition parties won 77 seats (an increase since the 2016 elections), Labor 68 (one) and the crossbench six (an increase). The coalition government has a majority of three seats.

As a result of the redistribution and loss of Wentworth to independent Kerryn Phelps in a selection in October 2018, the Coalition had 73 seats before the elections, a one-place advantage over Labor. With the help of this measure, the coalition achieved a net four seats in the election.

The coalition won the Queensland seats from Herbert and Longman, the Tasmanian seats from Braddon and Bass, and the New South Wales seat from Lindsay. Labor's only compensatory profit was Gilmore's NSW seat. Corangamite and Dunkley are not counted as labor profits because they have been redistributed into fictional work tables.

Four of the six pre-election cruisers could easily hold their seats – Adam Bandt (Melbourne), Andrew Wilkie (Clark), Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo) and Bob Katter (Kennedy). The Liberals narrowly regained Wentworth from Phelps, but independent Zali Steggall pitched Tony Abbott 57% -43% in Warringah. In Indi, the independent Helen Haines succeeded in leaving the independent Cathy McGowan and defeated the liberals by 51.4% -48.6%.

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The Coalition easily defeated independent challengers in Cowper and Farrer.

While Bandt was re-elected, the Greens went backwards in their other inner Melbourne target locations of Wills and Cooper. Only in Kooyong did the Greens succeed in beating Labor second.

The final primary votes were 41.4% Coalition (0.6% lower), 33.3% Labor (1.4% lower), 10.4% Greens (+ 0.2%), 3.4% United Australia Party (UAP) and 3.1% One Nation (+ 1.8%).

The last two-party vote was 51.5% for the coalition to 48.5% for labor, a 1.2% swing in favor of the coalition of the 2016 elections. It is the first pro-government swing since the 2004 elections.

The coalition was expected to do better once the 15 "non-classic" seats were included; these are seats where the last two candidates were not coalition and work. However, 11 of these chairs waved to Labor, including a swing of 9.0% in Warringah and a swing of 7.9% in Wentworth. Eight non-classics were electorates in the city center who had a tendency to go to Labor.

The table below shows the number of seats in each state and territory, the number of seats of the Coalition, the percentage of seats of the Coalition, the profit for the Coalition compared to the redistribution, the two-party vote of the Coalition, the swing to the Coalition in two-party conditions and the number of working seats.

Final seats won and votes cast in the house for every state and nationally.

Four of the six states registered swings for the Coalition in the range of 0.9% to 1.6%. Victoria was the only state that wielded labor at 1.3%. Queensland had a swing of 4.3% to the Coalition, much larger than any other state. Labor did well to capture a majority of the NSW seats despite convincingly losing the two-party vote.

The official turnout in the elections was 91.9%, an increase of 0.9% compared to 2016. According to analyst Ben Raue, 96.8% of voters entitled to vote were registered, the highest ever. This means that the effective turnout was 89.0% of the population, an increase of 2.6%.

Education distribution explains Coalition & # 39; s victory

Steggall not only pounded Abbott in Warringah, the 9.0% swing from the electorate to Labor based on two parties was the biggest turn to Labor in the country. Abbott & # 39; s 52.1% dual vote rate was by far the lowest for a conservative candidate against Labor since the founding of Warringah in 1922; the next lowest was 59.5% in 2007.

Although Abbott did poorly, other divisive Coalition MPs performed well. Barnaby Joyce won 54.8% of the primary votes in New England and achieved a swing of 1.2% against Labor. Peter Dutton had a swing of 3.0% for two parties with him in Dickson, and George Christensen had a massive 11.2% two-party swing with him in Dawson, the second largest for the coalition at national level.

According to the 2016 census, 42% of young people aged 16 and over had at least a bachelor's degree in Warringah, compared to 22% in Australia in general. Only 13.5% had at least a Bachelor's degree in New England, 19% in Dickson and 12% in Dawson.

In Victoria, which moved to Labor, 24.3% of the population had at least a bachelor's degree in 2016, the highest of all states in the nation.

The Grattan Institute has mapped fluctuations in the direction of Labor and the Coalition, taking into account wealth and tertiary education. Only voting booths in the top quintile waved to Labor; the other four income quintiles hurled at the coalition.

Areas with a low level of tertiary education waved strongly to the coalition in NSW and Queensland, but less in Victoria. There were solid fluctuations to work in areas with a high level of tertiary education.

Some fluctuations are explained by opposite fluctuations in 2016, when the Coalition under Malcolm Turnbull did relatively worse in lower educated areas and better in higher educated areas. The coalition vote in Queensland with 58.4% was 1.4% better than in the 2013 elections, although the national result is 2.0% worse. The large fluctuations to the coalition in regional Queensland are probably partly due to the issue of coal mines in Adani.

Morrison & # 39; s call to lower educated voters

Since becoming Prime Minister, Scott Morrison's reviews of Newspoll have been more or less neutral, with about as many people saying they are satisfied than the unsatisfied. After Morrison became the leader, I suggested on my personal website that the coalition compete with well-educated voters, and this happened during the elections. Morrison's appeal to people with a lower educational level, however, was more than compensated.

In my opinion, the main reason for the upset of the Coalition was that Morrison was both loved and trusted by low-educated voters, while they neither liked nor trusted Labor leader Bill Shorten.

Earlier this month, The Guardian published a long report on the campaign to deter social media. Although this and other coalition campaign campaigns may have influenced the result, they did so by responding to the mistrust of sellers of lower educated voters on Shorten. If these voters relied on Shorten, such scare campaigns would have had less influence.

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Labor has also carried out campaigns with scare campaigns Morrison attacks for deals with Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson. But I believe these ads didn't resonate because low-educated voters found Morrison better.

I think Morrison has received support from the low-skilled because they are skeptical of & # 39; inner city elites & # 39 ;. The Coalition leader emphasized his non-elite qualities during the campaign, such as by exercising and attending church. Turnbull was seen as a member of the elite, which could explain labor fluctuations in lower educated areas in 2016.

Parallels can be drawn to the 2017 elections in the UK. Labor performed much better than expected during the elections, reducing conservatives to a minority government when they were expected to win easily. Labor had taken a pro-Brexit position that might have sent a message to low-educated voters that they could support the party.

This offers an option for Australian Labor to try to regain support from lower educated voters: adopt a hardline immigration policy. Votes that Labor would lose from the Greens by doing so would probably be returned as preferences.

See also my similar article about how Donald Trump won the US presidential election in 2016.

The problem with the polls

The table below shows all national polls released in the last week compared to the election result. An estimate of the survey within 1% of the actual result is printed in bold.

Federal polls compared to election results, 2019.
Author provided

The polls did well on the One Nation and UAP votes, and were a bit low on the Greens. The main source of error was that Labor's voice was exaggerated and the Coalition was not underestimated. Only Ipsos had the voice of Labor well, but it exaggerated the voice of the Greens by about three points – a common occurrence for Ipsos.

No poll since July 2018 had given the coalition a primary vote of at least 40%. At the election, the coalition parties received 41.4% of the votes.

As I said in my report after the elections, it is likely that opinion polls make educated voters unnecessary.

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Almost all Seat polls during the campaign came from YouGov Galaxy, which runs Newspoll. The Poll Bludger says that these polls, just like the national polls, were biased against the coalition.

Analyst Peter Brent has calculated the two-party vote for all election days and early votes. The gap between election day and early voting increased from 4.6% in 2016 to 5.0% in 2019. This does not mean that polls were missed due to a dramatic late swing to the coalition in the last days; it is much more likely that the polls remained wrong for a long time.

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I wrote for The Poll Bludger on June 14 that, after winning the support of 114 of the 313 conservative MPs in the first round of voting, Boris Johnson is almost certain to become the next British prime minister. Polls show that he will boost the conservative mood.

I also wrote on my personal website on June 6 about the victory of links in the Danish elections. Also covered: a new Israeli election, the wave rise of the German Greens, and the left winning a seat in the 4 upper Tasmanian periodic elections.