Actually, this would have been the week of Brexit. But after the failure of Prime Minister May, many scenarios are now conceivable. What happens today and the days ahead.
This is the week that has been worked on in London and Brussels. For months, for years. This is the week in which the UK should have left the European Union. Deadline: 29th March 2019. An end. Finally. That's what it was meant to be.
Instead, this week is a start. Any Brexit scenario ever thought seems possible again. The No-Deal, a soft Brexit of any kind, new elections or a second poll for which hundreds of thousands have demonstrated in London over the weekend: The selection is as big as it was two years ago. So what happens in the coming days? What happens on March 29? And what after?
Monday, March 25th
On Monday, the British parliament could set some important course. In the evening, the Lower House wants to vote on how to proceed, once again. It is becoming increasingly clear that it will probably be up to the MEPs now, they may take the helm and try to find a way out of the state crisis.
The role of the deal the Prime Minister has negotiated with the EU is unclear. The PM is badly hit, and over the weekend British media have reported a coup against them in the cabinet, speculating on possible successors. Although some ministers subsequently backed them, it is clear that they are unlikely to have the strength to bring Parliament's exit agreement, which they have negotiated with the EU.
May meets with the Cabinet before the debate in the House of Commons on Monday for a special session. It should not only be about a way out of the chaos surrounding the EU exit, but also about the head of the government itself. More and more often in London can be heard that they significantly increase the chances of accepting the deal by citing a withdrawal date could. According to a report by broadcaster ITV, May has promised party-internal Brexit hardliners their resignation on Sunday, if they still agree to the exit deal with the EU.
However, if the prospects for the EZ exit agreement remain as bad as they are at the moment, the lower house is moving into focus. Parliamentarians can again table amendments to the Brexit debate in the evening. Seven pieces are known so far. Parliament Speaker John Bercow decides which is actually voted on.
The application that receives the most attention comes from two backbenches. They want to wrest control of the parliamentary calendar from the government for a day, next Wednesday. Then the deputies could carry out a series of trial votes ("indicative votes") to find out which Brexit options in Parliament are majority-eligible.
Tuesday, March 26th
Tuesday is considered a possible date for MV3. For example, Westminister calls the third meaningful vote on May's deal. The agreement to leave the EU in the lower house has already failed twice. That it comes to a third vote seems increasingly unlikely. May had tried by letter to put pressure on her deputies. In it she threatened to cancel the third vote, if not sufficient support emerges.
It is not even clear whether voting is allowed at all. President Bercow has decreed that the deal can not be put to another vote without substantive changes. But May loyalists might try (possibly on Monday) to override Bercov's decision. To do this, the government would have to petition Parliament to simply ignore its decision. And Parliament would have to vote to vote again on the deal.
The Prime Minister may also try to persuade Bercow to accept Brussels' commitment to Brexit postponement as a substantial change. She will probably make a statement on Monday about the course of the EU summit on 21 and 22 March. The EU had offered Britain a postponement of Brexit until May 22, when the lower house approves the withdrawal agreement.
Wednesday, March 27th
On Monday, if parliament votes on the various Brexit scenarios for trial votes, it would take place on Wednesday. In addition, the decision on the cancellation of the 29th of March will be used as the departure date for Wednesday or Thursday in Parliament.
Thursday, March 28th
If the trial matches are not a way out of the sovereign crisis, May – if it did not already do so on Tuesday – could take this as an opportunity to start a third vote on the Brexit deal.
Friday, March 29th
The day Brexit should have taken place. And where nothing happens. The earliest possible Brexit date is now April 12th.
By now Britain must have decided whether to take part in the European elections. And London must have told the EU what the plan is in case Mays deal still has not found a majority. No Brexit? Soft Brexit? Elections? Two options are possible: If the European Union's plan is good enough, it agrees to a further extension of the deadline. Or the UK is leaving the EU without a deal.
The new Brexit date, when May brings their deal through Parliament until March 29th.
May 23rd to 36th
The European elections are taking place.
With material of the agencies.