Increased Risk: Earth May Face a Big Ben-Sized Asteroid Impact in 2032
The possibility of an asteroid the size of Big Ben colliding with Earth has garnered increased attention, with the latest data from NASA revealing an elevated threat in 2032. This asteroid, named 2024 YR4, was first spotted in December by researchers from Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey.
Asteroid 2024 YR4: Close Encounter Alert
Discovered using NASA’s ATLAS project telescope in Chile, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 to 90 meters wide. On January 28, the asteroid was assessed at level 3 on the Torino impact hazard scale, meaning it warranted attention from both astronomers and space agencies worldwide. Experts predict that further observations will be critical in determining the exact trajectory and potential impact.
NASA’s Latest on 2024 YR4
Recent NASA data shows that the probability of 2024 YR4 striking Earth has risen to 3.1%, up from 2.3% recorded in the previous week. The impact, if it occurred, would release the equivalent energy of eight megatons of TNT—approximately 500 times the power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
Expert Opinion: No Need for Panic
Catalina Sky Survey’s David Rankin advises against panic. He estimates the asteroid will likely pass between Earth and the moon in 2032. “This will very likely pass between us and the moon in 2032,” Rankin wrote on Bluesky. More importantly, he stresses that while the risk corridor spans from South America to sub-Saharan Africa, including parts of Mumbai, the probability of impact remains low. “Right now, the most likely outcome is a miss,” Rankin emphasizes.
Potential Impact on Earth
Should 2024 YR4 strike, the impact could range from an “airburst” in the atmosphere to forming an impact crater. The aftermath depends on the asteroid’s size and trajectory. NASA frequently monitors car-sized asteroids, which burn up before reaching the Earth’s surface.
The possible impact corridor includes South America, parts of Europe, and several regions in Africa, with the easternmost edge of the risk area passing over Mumbai. While this raises awareness, the odds favor a near-miss rather than a collision.
When and Where Could Impact Occur?
Projections suggest that December 22, 2032, is when the asteroid is most likely to approach Earth. However, this timeline is subject to revision based on ongoing observations and trajectory calculations.
Conclusion: Stay Informed, Stay Calm
While the prospect of an asteroid impact is concerning, it is crucial to maintain perspective. Asteroids are a regular phenomenon, and this particular one has a very low probability of impacting Earth. Experts are closely monitoring the situation and updating their assessments as new data is collected.
Stay informed about the latest updates from reputable sources and space agencies like NASA. In the meantime, enjoy the serenity of our planet, knowing that a team of experts is diligently working to ensure our safety.
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