The 574 deputies of the National Assembly (AN), the First Chamber of the National Parliament, are set to vote on Monday afternoon on the motion of confidence for the government of Prime Minister François Bayrou. This vote occurs amidst what is described as the most serious political crisis in the history of the V Republic, founded between 1958 and 1962.

At 3 PM, Prime Minister Bayrou is scheduled to deliver a general policy speech, followed by a request for a vote of confidence to secure approval for state budgets, which include approximately 40,000 million in cuts. A parliamentary debate will ensue, with representatives from ten parliamentary groups offering commentary, and either approving or rejecting Bayrou’s proposals.

Analysts predict that if Bayrou maintains his established positions without considering the responses from his adversaries,the government is likely to face rejection and censorship. Insumisa France (LFI, extreme left) with 71 deputies, the French Communist Party (PCF) with 17 deputies, and the Socialist Party (PS) with 66 deputies, have all indicated they will vote for censorship. However, the socialist Party (PS) has not ruled out changing their stance if Emmanuel Macron agrees to form a government with socialist ministers.

Opposition Calls for “Fast” Resignation

“fast” resignation, followed or accompanied by early legislative elections.

Ecologists (38 deputies) and the National Group (An, extreme right, 123 deputies) are also expected to withdraw their support. Marine le Pen has called for Bayrou’s “fast” resignation, potentially followed by early legislative elections. the union of the rights for the republic (UDR, hard right, 15 deputies) also intends to censor the prime minister.

These four left-wing groups and two extreme right groups collectively hold 330 seats, representing 57% of the 574 deputies.

Conversely, Bayrou and Macron have the backing of four groups totaling 207 deputies: together for the Republic/Renaissance (center), with 91 deputies; Modem (Center, the Bayroun party), with 36 deputies; Horizons (center), with 34 deputies; Republican right/Republicans (the traditional right party, by Nicolas Sarkozy), with 46 deputies. Though, some members of the Republican right/republicans are reportedly “doubtful,” following Sarkozy’s call for early elections.

Formations such as freedoms and self-reliant (Liberal Centristas), with 83 deputies, remain divided and are conditioning their support on obtaining certain “concessions.”

The current French parliamentary landscape is unprecedented in the history of the V Republic. Its fragmentation and the decline of traditional political families have created a political and parliamentary crisis with institutional dimensions, precipitated by Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the national Assembly and call for early elections in June of the previous year.

Decline of Traditional Parties

This crisis reflects the emergence of a new social France in the political arena. On the left, France Insumisa has become the majority party in the multicultural France of the ‘Banlieue’, encompassing the suburbs of paris and other major cities. This includes many Muslim women and young people, individuals from African families, social and sexual minorities, as well as medium-organic family minorities.

The ancient and traditional left parties, the PCF and the PS, have diminished significantly. The liberal social policies implemented by socialist leaders like Lionel Jospin and François Hollande contributed to the decline of French socialism. In the 2022 presidential election, the socialist candidate, Anne Hidalgo, received onyl 1.7% of the votes. The 2024 legislative elections somewhat obscured the socialist decline due to the presentation of common lists with the extreme left, communists, and environmentalists.

The traditional right, once represented by Charles de Gaulle, has been affected by failures, corruption, and scandals involving its leaders over the past few decades, including jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy, and François Fillon.

The historical centrism, once embodied by Valéry Giscard d’esting, is now divided among a party and two groups that support Bayrou and Macron, lacking a clear leadership in the new social and political landscape of France.