Economy on the Cusp: Key Economic Data to Watch This Week
As we approach the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week and a presidential election, economic data is abounding. Analysts and economists are eagerly awaiting several key releases that could provide insight into the health of the economy. Here’s a breakdown of what’s coming and what you need to know.
Key Economic Data Releases
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S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, out now, indicates a potential breaking of the 2024 uptrend. -
September Job Openings
The job openings report for September showed a significant drop to a 3 1/2-year low. -
Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence hit its highest level in nine months in October. -
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Measures
Gross domestic product measures will be released on Wednesday, painting a picture of the economic health. -
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index
Providing indicators on personal consumption expenditures, Thursday’s report offers a glimpse into inflation rates. - Employment Report
The much-anticipated jobs report on Friday will be crucial in determining future economic trends.
The Federal Reserve’s Plans
Carola Binder, an economist from the University of Texas at Austin, is fairly confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. This move aligns with the Fed’s signals and its pattern of managing expectations.
Binder believes the Fed aims to minimize any political appearance of partisanship by meeting post-election and following its communications closely, allowing markets to prepare. Markets have already priced in this expected cut, which minimizes the effect of this week’s economic data on November’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
According to Binder, the real focus will be on the signals about future rates, particularly regarding December and beyond. Randy Kroszner, a former Fed governor, echoes this by centering around the employment report. A strong jobs report could signal a pause on interest rate cuts in December.
Analyzing the Subtext
Economists are looking at subtextual data like the job quits rate and auto loan delinquencies for deeper insights. Andrew Levin, economist at Dartmouth College, advices being patient and not overreacting to single data points. The Fed seeks the "Goldilocks level" of interest rates—just right to stabilize the economy.
Binder stresses that the Fed will wait for a clear pattern to emerge before making decisions about future interest rates.
Don’t Miss Out
Economic indicators are vital tools for understanding market trajectories. Stay informed by following key releases and expert analyses. Your financial decisions rely on current and reliable information, so stay engaged with the economy.
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