Donald Trump’s Climate Policies: A Backward Step for the US and the Planet
Donald Trump has attempted to impose a new global order on climate and energy by declaring that the US has “the largest amount of oil and gas of any country on Earth, and we are going to use it.” This declaration is part of a broader strategy that has seen the US withdraw from the nonbinding Paris climate agreement, a move he claims would save the US over a trillion dollars.
Trump’s Dodgy Economics and Mistruths
However, these claims are unfounded and based on faulty economic analysis and misinformation. Trump’s actions will have significant disruptive effects, particularly at a time when the planet is more vulnerable than ever to the impacts of climate change. Emerging from a flurry of executive orders, it remains to be seen if these policies will play out as Trump envisions.
The US and the Paris Agreement
By pulling out of the Paris agreement, the US joins an exclusive list of Yemen, Iran, and Libya. This decision comes at a critical juncture, as 2024 was the hottest year on record. It represents a major step backward for the world’s second-largest carbon-emitting nation, which needs stronger leadership and ambition to tackle the climate crisis.
Risks and Potential Reactions
For the most vulnerable populations, climate change is no longer a distant threat; it is a daily reality with devastating impacts. Trump may continue to frame climate issues without referencing the role of fossil fuel emissions, but extreme weather events will likely bring attention back to the crisis.
There is a grave risk that the US withdrawal from the Paris agreement may embolden other nations to follow suit, weakening the global push for climate action. Conversely, powerful blocs such as the EU and China might strengthen their commitment to clean energy, viewing this move as an opportunity to assert their leadership in green tech.
Analysis by Carbon Brief suggests that Trump’s return to office could add an additional four billion tonnes of US emissions by 2030, compared to the commitments made during Biden’s administration. This increase would undo the equivalent of all the emissions reductions achieved globally from deploying wind, solar, and other clean technologies over the past five years.
The Haze of Executive Orders
Emerging from a series of rapid-fire executive orders, it is unclear whether Trump’s policies will achieve the intended outcomes. One significant order is titled “Unleashing American Energy Dominance,” which includes moves to resume liquefied natural gas exports, changes to vehicle standards favoring diesel and petrol cars over electric vehicles, and a lack of investment in hydrogen hubs.
This approach could lead to increased consumer energy bills, stifling offshore wind development, and negating the progress made under the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, which aimed to transition the US to a clean-energy economy.
The Economic Case for Energy Transition
While Trump often takes haphazard actions, his hollowing out of the Inflation Reduction Act undermines efforts to transition the US to a clean-energy economy. The economic case for new fossil-fuel extraction is less compelling, especially in remote locations, due to the increasing costs and decreasing demand for oil and gas.
Energy futurist Michael Barnard believes oil and gas prices face a significant drop, challenging the economic viability of “drill, baby, drill.” US oil output is heavily reliant on shale oil, and the cheapest sites have already been tapped. Peak oil demand is approaching as China shifts towards electric vehicles, and other countries follow suit.
Transitioning to renewable energy sources has gained momentum, with states, cities, and corporations taking steps towards sustainability. However, this shift is too slow given global emission trends. The green economy, worth over $10 trillion annually, offers significant job opportunities, with at least 10 million jobs in the green sector in the US compared to 300,000 in the fossil fuel industry.
The Future of Electric Vehicles
The growth of the electric vehicle (EV) market is another trend that Trump has little influence over. Katherine García, director of Sierra Club’s clean transportation campaign, highlights how the shift towards EVs is creating jobs across the US. Rolling back vehicle emission safeguards could harm public health, increase energy costs, and exacerbate climate change.
The US could start to look like Russia and Cuba once did with old cars not found anywhere else.
The shift to EVs is not only about environmental benefits; it also offers economic opportunities. Elon Musk’s influence could have positioned the US as a leader in renewable energy and EV technology, but Trump’s focus on fossil fuels might put the US at a disadvantage in the global market.
Conclusion: A Critical juncture
Donald Trump’s climate policies represent a significant backward step for the US and the planet. His actions risk undoing progress made in reducing carbon emissions and could have far-reaching implications for