Doctors estimate the likelihood of a second wave of coronavirus


Lately, there has been a lot of talk about the upcoming second wave of coronavirus and new restrictions associated with it. The people even managed to call the date – September 20. However, the other day Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin denied these rumors and said that there is practically no danger of a second wave. At the same time, control over observance of the mask regime has been tightened in the capital. So will the notorious outbreak of disease and what should we expect, the doctors told Tsargrad.

The actions of the capital’s authorities in recent years may seem paradoxical. A few days ago, the head of the department of trade and services reported that more than 300 million rubles in fines for violating the mask regime had already been collected from Moscow stores. Many retail outlets that stopped monitoring the wearing of masks by visitors again tightened control. They also recalled fines and daily raids in public transport – 37 thousand people have already been fined since mid-May. Muscovites were clearly given to understand that no one canceled the wearing of masks, and violators would be punished as severely as before.

At the same time, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said at the weekend that there would not be a second wave of coronavirus, which everyone is not lazy about each other with. In his opinion, there is practically no such danger.

The second wave is when people are in danger of being infected a second time. There is practically no such thing in our country, anywhere in the world. Why is there, in a number of regions, such rapid growth? Because they haven’t even gone through the first wave, the first process,

– said the mayor.

So the fines for the lack of a mask, citizens, don’t stop paying – you need to replenish the treasury. And don’t worry about the infection. Everything’s under control.

However, despite assurances from authorities, many people remain worried about COVID-19 and its possible second wave. What should we expect and should we be afraid, we learned from the doctors.

“There will definitely be a second wave”

We can immediately say that the specialists are not as optimistic as Sergei Semyonovich. Despite the fact that now the increase in cases of covid is not as great as before, they predict a second wave.

“Coronavirus, like any respiratory disease, in warm weather leaves for the southern hemisphere and circulates there. And then, when spring and summer begins in October, it returns to the northern hemisphere. This is a natural course, and such a second wave will certainly be. the same as the flu returns every year. You can not even doubt “, – says the candidate of medical sciences, therapist Alexei Khukhrev.

However, in his opinion, the second wave of coronavirus incidence will not be as acute as the first. This is due to the fact that the virus over time “slowly loses its virulence” – that is, the ability to infect and kill.

The virus does not have an evolutionary task to kill everyone, says Aleksey Khukhrev. – He has a task to breed. As a rule, when a new virus appears, it can be very angry at first and do business. Like the same Spanish woman. And then it weakens, and fewer and fewer people die from it in the epidemic. It’s the same here. They will sneeze, cough, there will be pneumonia, but most likely they will not be as angry as they are now.

The fact that the second wave of coronavirus will be, the colleague was supported by the doctor of medical sciences, virologist Anatoly Altstein.

“I think that [вторая волна] will be. Because autumn will come, cold will come. It affects the immune state of people. In addition, there is crowding of people in the premises: people will not be able, as they are now, to be in the fresh air far from each other. Usually the period of cold snaps is a period of increasing respiratory infections. I think the coronavirus too, “- said the virologist.

But he also agrees that the second wave will not be as heavy and dangerous as the first. According to Anatoly Altstein, the pathogenic properties of COVID-19 are already gradually decreasing, judging by the lethality in different countries. So even if the incidence increases, the infected people will be able to tolerate the disease more easily.

However, there are those among virologists who believe that it is too early to even talk about a second wave of coronavirus. Because the first wave is still going on – and not only in a number of Russian regions, as Sergei Sobyanin said, but all over the planet.

What is the point of talking about the second wave now, if the first has not ended? Every day we have more than five thousand new cases in the Russian Federation, people continue to die. In some countries the situation is critical. The number of recoveries does not exceed the number of infected. There are still more infected people – and this is the main thing. And the rise in the autumn-winter incidence and so it is clear what will happen,

– said in an interview with Tsargrad, candidate of medical sciences, virologist Georgy Vikulov.

Experts are sure that the coronavirus will not go away so easily. And we need to somehow live with it. Perhaps, over time, it will weaken, we will get used to it and will not pay attention to it, like the usual seasonal flu. Many doctors are confident that this will be the case. But this fall should not relax: along with the cold weather, the second wave of COVID-19 will come. So immunity is worth training now.


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