Division round player props and the best NFL bets

The NFL Divisional Round kicks off Saturday with the Jags visiting Arrowhead first, then the Giants trekking to Philadelphia to face the Eagles. bottom.

This is a sectoral round, and the longer we wait, the more efficient these prop markets will be. With some teams having to make significant changes in their offensive game plans from last week to this week, there are some angles that bettors can take advantage of early on.

This weekend we’ll be playing the game script twice after hitting the defensive end at Arrowhead on Saturday night.

Check out my NFL prop picks for the Divisional Round weekend.

Latest NFL Prop Picks

  • Chris Jones scores a sack (-130)
  • Saquon Barkley Over 15.5 Carry (-115)
  • Reception less than Richie James 4.5 (-130)

Check out our full analysis of our picks below, or click here to view our full betting card.

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NFL Prop Picks for Saturday’s Game

suck attack

The last time the two teams met, Trevor Lawrence was forced off the field after taking five sacks. It was a game in which Frank Clarke (he had five sacks in 15 games) was inactive and his rookie first-round pick George Karraftis was not pressuring at will (he was the last). (He had 5.5 sacks in seven games).

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All of this is good news for Chris Jones and his sack market.

Jones is ranked the second-best interior pass rusher behind New York’s Dexter Lawrence, according to Pro Football Focus. His 15.5 sacks in the season ranked him fourth in football, and in the Week 11 meeting with Jacksonville, he recorded a season-high two sacks and five tackles (three losses). bottom.

His matchup this week is even easier with Walker Little in charge of the left tackle spot after Cam Robinson suffered a season-ending injury in the regular season. To make his O-line worse for the Jaguars, their starting center and right guard were also restricted in practice earlier in the week.

The Chiefs rank fifth in pressure this year, and taking multiple sacks in this year’s game would be a big part of their game plan against Lawrence, who is 2-5 SU. That includes last week’s improbable victory against a Chargers team that ranks in the bottom 10 for pressure percentage and rush percentage, in which he was sacked twice. will be

This is one of the best defensive matchups on the board this weekend.

chris jones prop: to record a sack (-130 on bet365)

salvation barkley

The Giants went from one of the best pass matchups in the Wild Card Round against the 26th-ranked Vikings team in pass defense DVOA to the toughest in the Divisional Round against the Eagles’ highest-ranked pass defense by DVOA. will be

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For a running back with the third-highest workload in football, it’s good that the Eagles are a lot softer on the ground, ranking 21st in DVOA rush defense, according to Football Outsiders.

Saquon Barley’s carry total opened at 15.5. That’s 3 carries shorter than he was last week as a 3-point dog. Moving from +3 to +7.5 is not worth three full his carries in my opinion. Especially in his games against the two teams he has already played against twice this season.

The Giants’ 4.8 yards per carry is the fourth-best rate in football, and New York is the best team in the league at protecting football (0.9 giveaways per game), so the game was closer than expected. may become.

The hype for Daniel Jones also runs a little higher when you get into this game. Jones threw for 300 yards last week, and it’s the third time he’s done it this season. His two remaining games were against the Vikings (again) and the Lions.

Bryan Dabor would dramatically change the offensive game plan, which should lead to more carries for Barkley. He trailed Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs in carries per game this season (18.44 per game). THE BLITZ predicted a carry of 19.53 for him, and the game script predicted as a 7.5 point dog seems overcorrected.

squon barkley prop: 15.5 carry or more (-115)

back to james

Having beaten Richie James in an elite showdown at Slots vs. the Vikings last week, he lost the snap as Brian Dabor ran another 2 TE set. James finished his fourth on the team in receiving yards (31), and his share of snaps dropped from his 83% in Weeks 14–17 to 60% last week.

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James is now playing against the #1 pass defenseman in the DVOA, and his receiving yards total is down from 50.5 to 45.5. However, his receiving total remains unchanged from last week at 4.5.

Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins and Barkley are all on target, and this 7.5-point potential negative game script isn’t enough to expect a ton of games from Jones.

Jones threw for 300 yards indoors last week. It’s the third time he’s passed for more than 300 yards this season, and he now faces the Eagles’ pass his defense, which allows him 179 passing yards per game. Also, if the Giants can keep this distance, beating the Eagles on the ground is their best game plan.

With tougher matchups, potential lighter roles in more 2 TE sets, catch competition, and reduced yardage totals, that’s an under 4.5 reception for me.

richie james prop: Less than 4.5 received (-130)

Season to date: 129-127, +3.19u units (1 unit at risk per play)

  • Chris Jones scores a sack (-130 on bet365)
  • Saquon Barkley Carry over 15.5 (-115 on Betway)
  • Richie James less than 4.5 receptions (-130 on bet365)

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