Wednesday, August 12, 2020

DAX price up to date: Wirecard stock remains a gamble

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Düsseldorf The trade interruption was not well received by the German stock market. After a friendly start, the Xetra trading system stood still for almost three hours. With the restart of trading, the Dax slipped into minus and traded 1.5 percent lower at 12,124 points at noon.

As the exchange operator Deutsche Börse announced on its website, there were technical problems. Only a few months after the last outage, a technical disruption on Wednesday paralyzed trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, the Vienna Stock Exchange and other European stock exchanges. Once again, a spokesman for the stock exchange ruled out a hacker attack.

The last such disruption occurred on April 14, 2020, when trading on the Xetra platform was suspended for four hours – one of the longest disruptions in the history of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Before that, it had failed twice for a long time in 2018. After the last disturbance, CEO Theodor Weimer said that the stock exchange had taken precautions to avoid such a breakdown in the future. He did not comment in detail on the causes of the disturbance at the time.

The trading system not only uses the Frankfurt stock exchange but also the stock exchanges in Vienna, Prague, Budapest, Zagreb, Ljubljana, Sofia and Malta, so that the disruption had a Europe-wide impact. The cause is still being investigated, said the exchange spokesman. The renewed mishap is a flaw for the Dax group, which advertises its technology as one of the “most efficient and safest exchange systems worldwide”.

What does the new month of July bring? Based on the data since 1988, the fifth best monthly performance in the course of the year results in July with an average price increase of 1.57 percent, the technical analysts of the Düsseldorf-based bank HSBC calculated. Only the classic year-end and dividend rally cause German standard values ​​to increase even more in October, November, December and April.

But the average price increase is only one side of the coin: the probability of rising DAX prices in July is also constructive at 59 percent.

As long as the stock barometer is above the combination of the steep recovery trend since the end of March (currently at 12,225 points) and the 200-day line (currently at 12,156 points), the starting position is favorable to capitalize on the seasonal tailwind described the HSBC analysts.

The losing stocks of the corona crisis are likely to be in the spotlight in the coming days and weeks. Can you defend your gains over the past few weeks when the economic recovery is sluggish? Or if there is even a second wave of the corona pandemic?

In addition to the aerospace industry, banking stocks, automotive and tourism industries, loser stocks also include the steel industry. How much the share price and the economic outlook drift apart can be explained well using the example of Thyssen Krupp.

The numbers that the Essen-based company published yesterday at a company meeting yesterday are dramatic. In view of the pandemic, there is no longer any question of “generating”, the financially troubled company expects a negative cash flow of more than one billion euros this year. CFO Carsten Evers spoke of orders of magnitude “that are at risk of existence”.

However, the picture shows a completely different picture Chart of the Thyssen-Krupp share. Despite the gloomy outlook, yesterday’s price rose 2.5 percent yesterday, and Wednesday lost 3.4 percent in a weak market environment. However, the stock balance sheet of the past three months shows an astonishing increase of 36 percent.

It should come as no surprise that the hedge funds, which probably made billions from the fall in the Wirecard share, are slowly increasing their short speculations on Thyssen-Krupp’s share price. The so-called short sale rate has risen to 4.35 percent of all freely tradable shares in the past few days.

The Wirecard shares once again live up to their name as gambler paper. Already on Monday the price of the title rose by 154 percent, on Tuesday by almost 170 percent.

As of Wednesday, a price for the Wirecard share could only be determined on the Xetra trading platform after 1 p.m. The paper is currently losing 25 percent and is trading at € 4.30.

The overseas guidelines are mixed: Inspired by good economic data, the US stock markets closed on Tuesday with price gains. The S&P 500 gained 1.5 percent. The futures contracts signal an opening of the US markets of 0.2 percent in the red.

Tokyo exchange trading, on the other hand, turned negative after a friendly opening. In Shanghai, important indices are trending up.

The first economic data are positive: the easing in the corona crisis has that German retailers saw the strongest sales increase in May for at least 26 years. This enabled retailers to make up for the corona-related sales losses of the previous months.

The Ifo Institute even considers the economic crash caused by Covid-19 to be over: “Now things are steadily improving,” is his motto. Economists expect to return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021 – if there is no second wave of infections.

In June, however, unemployment rose again: 2,853 million people in Germany were out of a job, 40,000 more than in May and 637,000 more than a year ago. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2 percent within a month,

However, the number of people in employment is falling. In May, around 44.6 million people living in the Federal Republic were on wages and bread, 483,000 or 1.1 percent less than a year earlier. Short-time workers are among the employed.

Dates today

In the US, the numbers of the private employment agency ADP are on the schedule, which give a foretaste of the official data on Thursday. Experts expect three million jobs to be created in June, after just under 2.8 million jobs had been lost in the previous month.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) releases in the evening (8:30 p.m.) the minutes of their meeting on June 10th. At that time, the central bankers had unanimously voted in favor of keeping interest rates at the current level until the end of next year. Investors hope that the protocol will provide information on further monetary policy decisions.

Look at the individual values

Airbus: The European aircraft manufacturer plans to cut 15,000 jobs worldwide in the corona crisis. Airbus is responding to the slump in demand due to the collapse of air traffic practically worldwide. Germany has been hit hardest by the cut of 5,100 jobs, followed by France, where 5,000 jobs are available. The announcement has hardly any influence on the share price. The paper rises by 0.4 percent.

Home24: The increasing desire to buy on the Internet triggered by the corona pandemic has given online furniture retailer Home24 a strong second quarter. Sales rose by around 40 percent. The reopening of brick-and-mortar stores was also unable to curb the strong demand for online offers. Since some orders will only be delivered in the following months, Home24 also sees positive consequences for the third quarter. The share rises by almost 20 percent.

Home24 comes from Rocket Internet and was listed on the stock exchange in 2018. According to the latest information, Rocket Internet still holds just under 7.8 percent. Other major shareholders include the financial investor Baillie Gifford with around 7.8 percent, the Swedish Kinnevik with just under 11.8 percent and the hedge fund manager Ari Zweimann with just under 19 percent. Almost 43 percent of the shares are in free float.

Look at other asset classes

The gold price is hitting the $ 1800 mark. The futures contracts on the yellow precious metal have already overcome the mark, the August contract is currently trading at $ 1805. On the spot market, the price is $ 1788, up 0.4 percent from the previous day. For Commerzbank analysts, it should not be long before the spot price tests this brand, also because it is very attractive.

There is always a reason for this: For example, the global volume of government bonds with negative (nominal) yields rose again to $ 13.5 trillion, the highest level since mid-March. “This speaks for gold: gold does not generate interest, but it does not cost any,” says commodity analyst Eugen Weinberg.

Oil prices rose mid-week. Encouraging economic data from China and falling US inventories encouraged investors. The North Sea variety Brent rose by 2.7 percent to $ 42.39 per barrel, US light oil WTI cost around $ 2.8.3 to about 2.8 percent more.

According to data from private provider API, stocks of crude oil and gasoline in the United States fell more sharply than expected last week. That helps prices go up, the analysts at Bank ING explained. However, it remains to be seen whether the official figures from the energy authority confirm the trend.

What the chart technique says

After the Dax rally in April and May, the price trend in June was more of a consolidation. The June chart shows the range that could be important for the summer: With 12,913 points on the top there is an important hurdle that must be overcome for the rally to continue. On the underside is the important support for the coming weeks with the monthly low of 11,597 points.

Here is the page with the Dax course, here are the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current short sales by investors can be found in our short sales database.

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