Saturday, August 8, 2020

Dax is heading towards 11,000 points

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The leading German index is currently unstoppable. In the first trading hour, the Dax is 1.3 percent up and is traded at 10,703 points.

The German leading index has risen by more than 2,500 points since mid-March. You can marvel at this rally and believe in a renewed sell-off wave. But the fact is also: According to chart technology, the situation has eased significantly.

According to many technical analysts, the significant price gains in the past few days are more than just a bear market rally, an intermediate recovery in the intact downtrend, but a sustained upward trend.

“As a result, the DAX should continue to rise, with the area around 11,025 / 11,032 points representing massive resistance,” say the technical analysts at Düsseldorf-based bank HSBC in their morning commentary today.

Investor sentiment remains with a critical assessment of the situation. Investors should continue to sell positions that they would not keep in a new sell-off wave, advises Stephan Heibel after evaluating the current Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment. “I wouldn’t run after the courses because the courses now reflect a lot of hope,” he says. Reality should be gradually presented in the coming weeks through company figures.

Positive trading data from China spur the market on Tuesday. Exports shrank in March, but not nearly as much as feared. The People’s Republic had recently relaxed the massive restrictions on public life.

Should China now come with a comparatively small economic loss from the pandemic, that would be positive for the global economy, said Thomas Altmann, portfolio manager at QC Partners.

Hopes of the peak of the coronavirus pandemic hitting Asian equity markets soared on Tuesday. The Nikkei even rose 2.8 percent.
But the crucial data for future stock market developments come from the United States.

At midday in Central Europe, the US banks JP Morgan and Well Fargo as well as the pharmaceutical and consumer goods manufacturer Johnson & Johnson are presenting new business figures. The banks’ prospects in particular are likely to influence the Dax curve.

Because not only the disastrous economic development in the USA, but also key rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are a burden for US banks.

The US standard values ​​started yesterday’s Easter Monday with losses in the new week. However, the US futures contracts signal a trading opening at 3:30 p.m. Central European time 1.7 percent higher.

Above all, the bank stocks there are benefiting from the economic easing in neighboring Austria. Bawag and Raiffeisen papers rise more than six percent at the opening of the trade, leading the European banking index. Erste Group’s stocks rose by more than three percent, as did the Austrian selection index ATX.

Look at other asset classes

The euro exchange rate is rising. In the morning, the common currency was trading at $ 1.0944 after just a little above $ 1.09 last night.
This rise has more to do with the friendly mood on the stock markets than with the Euro Group’s agreement last Thursday on the corona crisis.

It was a compromise that didn’t make either side happy. The supporters of corona bonds did not because they were not decided. And not the opponents, because they were not excluded in bulk.

“This is how Europe squandered every chance to establish the euro as a safe haven currency,” said Commerzbank’s currency analysts.

Oil prices hardly react the decision to cut oil production in the 20 largest industrialized countries.

A barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea type Brent costs $ 32.20, up 1.4 percent. The price of a barrel of American WTI for May rose 0.8 percent to $ 22.60.

Because the weak demand continues. Accordingly, market observers do not expect a sustained recovery in oil prices. According to estimates, the slump in demand as a result of corona virus containment restrictions could reach up to 35 million barrels a day.

Look at individual values

Eon: The share is one of the few losers in the Dax with a minus of almost two percent. According to traders, the experts at the US investment bank Goldman Sachs downgraded them to “sell” from “neutral”.

Wirecard: The paper from the online payment service provider tops the Dax list of winners with a plus of four percent. The share certificate has come comparatively well through the stock market crash. The price has risen by around 25 percent in the past four weeks, since the beginning of the year the minus has been only 0.65 percent.

Here is the page with the Dax course, here are the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current short sales by investors can be found in our short sales database.

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