The year-end projections for the dollar vary, with one scenario placing it between $5.20 and $5.35, according to Matheus Pires Rocha, manager of the B&T XP Operations Table. A more conservative estimate suggests a range of $5.35 to $5.60. “But in an adverse scenario,it can be between $ 5.60 and $ 5.90, due to factors such as wars, US interference with tariffs,” he says.

While some anticipate a stronger dollar in the long term due to domestic factors, forecasts differ among financial institutions. Itaú BBA projects R$ 5.65, while The C6 bank anticipates a rate of $6. “External uncertainties and tax risks justify a cautious revision of the exchange rate,” said itaú.

Pletes, from doing capital, emphasizes the fragility of the tax situation. “Thus, projecting a continuity of the fall of the dollar is risky. It is most likely that the American currency will gain strength, ending the year at higher levels, and with the possibility of new discharge throughout next year,” he says. Bruno fratelli, an economist at Journey Capital, adds, “The Brazilian fiscal situation, the main source of volatility in domestic markets in late 2024, is as challenging as – if not worse.”

Jeff Patzlaff, Financial Planner and Investment Specialist, “bets on a dollar ranging from R $? 5.50 and R $? 6.00 until the end of the year.” He further explains, “Particularly, I believe in a higher dollar, close to $ 6, as much as it can fall, as uncertainties in Brazil are still very large, and they are not priced the way they should be,” he says.

A potential decrease in US interest rates could also impact the Real. “The good performance of the real can be harmed if the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US Central Bank) starts the interest cut and the US economy is strengthened,” says Stonex.This could lead to a shift of foreign investment away from Brazil and back to the US.

“Particularly, I believe in a higher dollar, close to $ 6, as much as it can fall, as uncertainties in Brazil are still very large.”

advice for travelers

For those planning to travel or diversify investments, “The suggestion is to buy dollar every month.” According to Patzlaff, this strategy of gradual purchasing helps to mitigate the effects of critically important drops or sudden increases in the exchange rate.