Blackhawks Trade Buzz and Future Contract Strategies

On Thursday morning, Elliotte Friedman released an insightful piece titled “32 Thoughts” about the NHL’s future. Among the many topics he covered, the Chicago Blackhawks garnered significant attention. Here’s what stood out:

Blackhawks Trade Buzz

Earlier in the day, I mentioned that 14 teams had scouts attending the Blackhawks-Oilers game. Friedman echoes this, noting that a light schedule and the approaching two-week break attracted considerable scrutiny in Chicago and Los Angeles. Additionally, the Blackhawks had a scout at the Kings-Canadiens match.

“With games on Wednesdays, scouts were in abundance, especially at Edmonton/Chicago and Montreal/Los Angeles. Interest in Connor Murphy was high last year, but injuries hindered his season. Now healthy, he’s drawing plenty of attention, along with Ryan Donato and Seth Jones.”

Notes on the Rantanen/Hall Trade:

• The Rantanen deal could have involved four teams. The Hurricanes considered whether other clubs would join to help offset Taylor Hall’s salary.

“The NBA’s Utah Jazz were crucial in the Doncic deal. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon reported that Jazz president Danny Ainge didn’t realize Doncic and Anthony Davis were part of it until an hour before the closing. By then, it was too late.

This situation highlights the criticism the Blackhawks faced for not demanding more in the Rantanen/Hall trade. When I asked executives if the Blackhawks should have reconsidered or asked for more, the response was unanimous: ‘How do you feel about breaking your word?’ GM Kyle Davidson wasn’t privy to specifics due to Colorado’s secrecy with Carolina. It’s a common tactic to obscure details, likely inflating numbers to obscure exactly who was sought.”

Perhaps Blackhawks fans should halt their intense scrutiny of the Rantanen/Hall trade for a moment. Maybe it wasn’t such a bad decision after all.

Future Contract Negotiations

Friedman shared a fascinating anecdote from almost 20 years ago involving the Blackhawks:

When Marc Bergevin, then of the Blackhawks, expressed his philosophy, he stressed hitting singles or doubles until constraints allow for home runs.

“Know when you’re ready to take risks,” he said. “You won’t encounter such players often. When you do, you must consider it.”

Friedman’s quotes encapsulate the Blackhawks’ current strategy under GM Kyle Davidson. They’ve been focused on accumulating draft picks to expedite their rebuild and hitting singles (and occasional doubles) in trades. However, as the roster strengthens, swinging for the fences will become more practical.

Future negotiations will involve another significant factor: the cap ceiling percentage in contract talks.

Players and agents increasingly focus on this percentage, a smart strategy spreading widely across the league. McDavid’s contract, for instance, represented the highest percentage at 15.72%,

One executive halted negotiations with a valued player because the team wouldn’t meet percentage demands. It comes down to leverage. Teams often aim to limit such arguments to top players. Time will tell how this evolves.”

Considering the NHL’s rapidly increasing salary cap, a seven-year deal at a $14M cap hit for Rantanen sums to $98M gross, surpassing the expected $95.5M cap ceiling for next year. Assuming a $95.5M ceiling, a $14M AAV translates to around 14.7% of the ceiling, declining yearly. McDavid’s ceiling percentage when signed remains a benchmark, suggesting a $15M AAV at the current ceiling, likely increasing in coming years.

Is it unrealistic for the Blackhawks to offer Rantanen or Marner a cap hit around $15-16M? Considering the escalating cap and the necessity to compete for top-tier players, the answer is no. This number may appear high短期内, but it represents a cautious approach in the NBA’s dynamic financial landscape.