Last week, I concluded my column on “the tectonic plates of the XXIth century “:” Europe is waking up with an affirmation of the Franco-German axis who recently displayed his ambitions during the Brégançon meeting. Until now, the Germans, paralyzed by the Second World War and more particularly the Shoah, have been advancing cautiously on the international scene and avoiding sending troops outside their borders. Three factors make them move … The next day maybe will see the political affirmation of Europe. This will require a Europe of defense, the protection of our economies without, however, reinstalling borders and an institutional reorganization of the continent. “
In a week, this prospect has not materialized, and even has been thwarted with the latest developments in the Aegean Sea, the resurgence of BREXIT, Belarus, the Russian opponent NAVALNY and the Middle East.
The Trojan War will not take place proclaimed and believed the protagonists … But the Trojan War ended up taking place … Will it be the same between Greece and Turkey? The first is rearming itself by purchasing Rafale in particular. The second continues the provocations. ERDOGAN expansionism undermines European unity and demonstrates the inefficiency, even the uselessness of the Atlantic Alliance.
As Turkey never signed the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Turkish seismic vessel Oruç Reis, protected by military vessels, continues to prospect in Cypriot and Greek territorial waters. Importing all of its gas, Turkey is looking for this resource. Moreover, ERDOGAN needs a scapegoat to hide its disappointments in the management of the pandemic and the consequences of the economic crisis; Even before the outbreak of the pandemic, the Turkish economy was in difficulty with a decrease in GNP, high inflation, a currency in regular depreciation …
However, with the exception of France, European support for Greece is scarce. At the same time, with the exception of France, few European countries were concerned about the arrival of the Turks in Libya.
At the same time, this crisis constitutes an additional stage in the end of the Atlantic Alliance. Destabilized by the American military withdrawal, the Alliance is undermined from the inside by Turkey when it buys missiles from Russia, the “enemy” which had justified its creation in the 1950s, or when it attacks to other Alliance members.
However, the means available to the Union are diverse and numerous:
- End high-paying migrant deal for Ankara
- Decide to abandon the membership process for good. Apart from a very small territory and a small historical part when the Turks were at the gates of Vienna, Turkey is not European neither geographically, nor politically, nor culturally …
- Adopt sanctions. Recall that Turkey is the 6th European partner through its exports
- Recognize the Armenian genocide.
It is also necessary to have the will and not be paralyzed like the Germans by the six million Turks settled on their territory.
And, here is BREXIT again! negotiations with London have once again entered a zone of turbulence. The discussions are part of a precise timetable for the adoption of the agreement on future relations between the Union and the United Kingdom by October 15, so as to have its entry into force on the 1is January, in view of the ratification deadlines, the date of the end of the transition period.
While we were in the home stretch, Boris JOHNSON threatens to call into question one of the crucial points of the October 2019 agreement, the operating conditions for trade between Ireland and the United Kingdom via the north of the Isle. Beyond the seriousness of calling into question a signature, the reopening of this point will only complicate the search for consensus on points just as sensitive as fishing or the role of the Court of Justice of the Union .
The temptation of “no deal” will be strong for Boris JOHNSON after catastrophic management of the pandemic and an economic situation which is at the very least delicate. The initial assessment error resulted in exceptionally long confinement. Without it being possible to distinguish between the responsibility for the pandemic and that of BREXIT, the country recorded a decline of more than 20% of its GDP, the highest in Europe.
At a time when the polls suggest that the British are opposed to BREXIT, Boris JOHNSON is taking risks, especially as the Scots could again claim their independence to stay in Europe. As tectonic plates shift, European disunity is one of the many signs that Europe is breaking out of history.
Europe struggles to make its voice heard on the continent both in Belarus and in Russia. Brussels and the European capitals do not seem able to influence the situation in Minsk to find a way out of the crisis. Only the Russian “big brother” seems to have the ear of President LOUKACHENKO. At the same time, the attempt to poison the Russian opponent NAVALNY may lead to the enactment of new sanctions against Russia. But is that sufficient? The sanctions taken after the annexation of Crimea or the interventions in eastern Ukraine have not moved Putin. Will Germany agree to question its gas pipeline project with Russia? Ensuring this supply will automatically lead to dependency!
Europe is not a player in the current redistribution of the cards in the Middle East. Under the leadership of the United States, Bahrain has just followed the example of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in recognizing and forging relations with the State of Israel on the basis of a simple principle, peace for peace, respect against respect, the economy against the economy … European inaction can lead to negative interference in negotiations with Serbia on the grounds that it plans to move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. By not moving, Europeans appear more and more overwhelmed; at the same time, Washington consolidates its alliances and leaves its mark on the peninsula while withdrawing militarily. They are far from the Sykes-Picot agreements of 1916 when the United Kingdom and France shared this zone!
Tomorrow, the President of the European Commission will pronounce his first State of the Union speech. It will rightly be able to highlight European successes in the fight against the economic crisis with the recovery plan and the interventions of the European Central Bank (ECB). On the other hand, it will not be able to advance any European success in terms of geopolitical positioning.
One of the signs of a European affirmation would be the presentation a common policy on migrants. After the Moria camp fire on the island of Lesbos, it is high time to stop relying on ERDOGAN to control the movements of people in our place. Our independence demands that we assume our responsibilities!