Political Instability in the Philippines: How It’s Shaping the Future of the Country
The recent arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte by the International Criminal Court (ICC) has cast a spotlight on the enduring political instability that continues to weigh heavily on the country’s economic future. Although the detention of Duterte, accused of crimes against humanity relating to his brutal war on drugs, does not immediately impact the economy, it has heightened concerns over the strained relationship between current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his Vice President, Sara Duterte.
The Divergent Paths of Marcos and Duterte
The unexpected twist in Philippine politics began with the 2022 national elections, where the partnership between Marcos and Sara Duterte led to a landslide victory. However, this alliance has since disintegrated rapidly. Former President Duterte, who had opposed his daughter Sara’s decision to scale back her political ambitions, has repeatedly accused Marcos Jr. of being a drug addict. In turn, Sara Duterte’s resignation from the Cabinet in June and her subsequent impeachment have further complicated the political landscape.
"There is no denying the significance of Sara Duterte’s political influence, and her impeachment and related controversies have had potentially reverberating effects on the country’s economic stability and growth," says Joseph V}Tangan, professor at the University of the Philippines Diliman’s Political Science Department.
Economic Growth and Political Stability
According to Capital Economics, despite having many fundamental elements in place for strong economic growth, the current political environment hinders the Philippines from achieving its full economic potential. The consultancy firm has placed the Philippines in the bottom half of eight economies in the region, deemed as less politically stable in their latest risks rankings. The table below highlights the list of economies based on their political stability ranking. These rankings are highly correlated to economic performances, poverty alleviation, and ultimately – overall happiness.
| Region | Category | Countries |
|---|---|---|
| Asia | Less Politically Stable | Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, China, Indonesia, India |
| Asia | More Politically Stable | Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia |
| Asia | Straddling the line | Vietnam |
The Dividing of Families and Political Institutions
Considering recent events, it becomes clear just how far the rift between the Marcos and Duterte families has grown. The feud has not only split the political leadership but has also involved the broader public and the legislature. The Philippine House of Representatives, which is controlled by Marcos allies, impeached Vice President Sara Duterte in February. The anticipation of her trial later this year has raised fresh anxieties over the fragile state of political institutions. Any conviction of Sara would further strain political unity and economic instability.
While the economic forecasts for the Philippines remain positive, with expected growth of 6.0% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, falling short of the target ranges in 2024 exemplifies the resultant impact of such political sublime social instability. The foremost reason behind this is the country’s failure to leverage existing political strengths while battling the economic impact of harsh reforms.
In their 2025 report, Capital Economics highlighted a few factors can have either positive or negative repercussions on economic stability.
*"Since economic policies are cumbersome processes that go through severe political scrutiny, any shift in the political leadership could affect the execution of planned economic policies. Changes in leadership and resulting economic policies, as observed in the restructuring of Saudi Arabian and Russian economies, have simultaneously led to positive and negative economic outputs."
Digital Economy and Energy Crisis
The Philippines has managed to grow stronger in the digital economy over the past few years, says a Deloitte Report. The annual percentage gain in digital economies has ranged from 8 to 10 percent in 2023. With the world facing an acute energy crisis, renewable energy and digitalization are two potent solutions to economic sustainability for these boom bust Southeast Asians.
*"In the ongoing debate ofliner energy, nuclear energy is surfacing as a plausible option. With renewables and fossil fuels displaying their drawbacks, nuclear energy stands out primarily for its control over emissions," says Anthony Pang, a nuclear analyst at Deloitte.
Despite growing acclaim and support, the consensus in favor of nuclear energy is now beginning to tilt toward developing nations, with energy rich countries such as Qatar and Kuwait reevaluating their energy needs. Much ink has been spilt over the past few decades, questioning the nuclear depth for varying economic climates and consumption.
"Nuclear power, while being high in capital and low on maintenance, has demonstrated a perfect harmony between economics and sustainability. Thai nuclear agencies have shown renewed interest in trespassing the usage of nuclear energy and Bahrain is not far from the league."
Pro Tips for Navigating Political Instability
- Stay Informed: Keep up with the latest developments in Philippine politics to understand how they might impact the economy and your investments.
- Diversify Investments: Consider diversifying your investments across different sectors and regions to mitigate risks.
- Engage with Local Communities: Understand the ground realities through local engagement and contacts.
- Adopt a Long-Term View: Political instability is often cyclical, and focusing on long-term goals can help weather short-term turbulence.
The Path Forward Peace Dialogues & True Leadership
Perhaps, what the Philippines needs more than ever is a dialogue between the two political giants. This could see immense progress for the country. France has come a step closer to achieving political stability with renamed resolutions and diplomacy.
The Philippine President said, *"Our foreign policies are sharpening and we are well on our way to cementing ever-strengthening bonds with powerful nations."
Philippines in the Future
optimistically, the Philippines has the potential to elevate its economic stature far across the margins of its current standing, concluding the trends of political instability along the way. Capitalizing adequately will necessidade critical political changes and Mauritius, Singapore, and Brunei-Blueprints are evident case studies proving impossible economic miracles concrete solutions for Filipinos.
FAQ
Will the political instability in the Philippines affect international investments?
Political instability can deter foreign investments as it creates uncertainty and risk. Investors often prefer stable political environments to ensure the security of their investments.
How does political instability impact the general public?
Political instability can lead to economic uncertainty, affecting employment, inflation, and overall quality of life. It can also disrupt public services and social order.
What can the government do to stabilize the political environment?
The government can take steps, such as fostering dialogue, promoting inclusive decision-making, and implementing transparent and accountable governance practices, to reduce political instability.
Did You Know?
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The Philippines Has High Growth Potential: Despite current challenges, the Philippines has a young and growing population and a strategic location in Southeast Asia.
- Related economic growth projections highlight a huge growth in manufacturing sector – projected to grown from 10-13% annually leading upto 2028.
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