Stock Market Crash: Iran War & European Losses – Oil Prices Surge

On the fourth day of the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, the Stoxx 600 index which brings together the main stocks listed on the European stock markets, burned 565 billion euros of capitalisation. Raw material prices skyrocketed: Brent oil at 83.6 dollars a barrel (+7.6%), WTI at 76.8 dollars (+8%). Still mind-boggling increases for TTF gas in Amsterdam: +20.4% to 53.6 euros per megawatt hour. «Central banks cannot produce oil. Monetary policy can curb demand, but not compensate for a supply shock,” writes Laura Cooperglobal investment strategist at Nuveen. Thus, energy price increases “act like a tax on consumers”, also worrying the markets regarding the prospects for the cost of money. For the moment, Eurostat estimates that the annual inflation rate in the euro area rose to 1.9% in February, from 1.7% in January.

Trump’s phone call

Meanwhile, a first opening from Donald Trump has arrived. The American president in a phone call to Politico he said that “it is not too late” to start a dialogue with new representatives of the Iranian government. The US president added that Tehran would have a “constantly deteriorating” military capacity, while believing that Iran “will continue to launch missiles for a while.” Words which in the last minutes of negotiations supported an albeit limited recovery of the price lists from the lows of the day.

Supply chains

Investors, on the other hand, are wondering about the duration of the hostilities even if the American presidentDonald Trump, made it known that attacks should last 4-5 weeks but they could be even longer. The escalation of conflict is closely linked to the risk of blockade for energy supply chains and, consequently, the stability of the global economy, considering the enormous flows of crude oil and LNG that pass by ship through the strait. So much so that some observers already hypothesize the barrel will reach 100 dollars in a short time if the conflict were to prolong, despite the increase in OPEC+ production. (Real time data here).

In Milan

Thus Milan closed at -3.9%, the worst with Madrid (-4.6%). The rest of Europe does not fare better: Paris -3.4%, Frankfurt -3.6%, Amsterdam -2.5% and London -2.8%. Even Wall Street, which had “held” close to parity, saw the main indices lose around one and a half percentage points. In Piazza Affari there are few who are saved from the sales. First of all Lottomatica (+3.3%) rewarded by the 2025 accounts and the 2026 guidance. Followed by Recordati (+1.3%), while Leonardo (-0.4%) traveled between the plus and minus signs throughout the session. The rest of the price list is just reductions. Energy sectors performed badly with Saipem (-5.1%) and Italgas (-6.3%), while in the luxury sector we find Moncler (-6.5%) at the bottom. For the currency, the greenback strengthens: the euro drops to 1.1581 dollars: the exchange rate, according to analysts, is following the movements of oil and gas. U-turn for precious metals: spot gold at 5,110 dollars an ounce (-4%) and spot silver at 83 dollars (-7%).