메르켈 기민당 3년 만에 재집권 가능성 관찰: 독일 총선 스냅샷

Will CDU Regain Power In Germany After Three Years?

Germany heads to the polls on February 23 for crucial elections to the Bundestag, the federal parliament. Central to these elections is whether the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by former Chancellor Angela Merkel, can reclaim power after three years out of office.

The election, initially scheduled for September, was brought forward by seven months due to internal strife within the government and parliamentary infighting. Key contestants include Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU; Olaf Scholz, current Chancellor and leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD); and Alice Weidel of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

The Electoral Setup

The Bundestag has 630 seats, with voters casting two votes: one for a local candidate and another for a party list. Voting runs from 8 AM to 6 PM on election day.

CDU and AfD: Centering the Spotlight

German media predict that a coalition headed by the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), may secure a majority, potentially bringing Merz to the Chancellorship.

Meanwhile, the AfD, currently with 78 seats in the Bundestag, remains a formidable presence. A recent Politico poll showed the CDU-CSU bloc with a 30% lead, the AfD on 21%, and the SPD on 16%.

Coalition Dynamics

A one-party majority doesn’t seem likely, suggesting coalition building will be crucial. Even if the CDU-CSU secure a plurality, negotiations with the SPD may be necessary to form a stable government. Despite this, the extreme-right AfD faces significant hurdles due to a “far-right firewall” preventing it from joining a governing coalition.

Key Election Issues

The election will hinge on crucial issues including the Ukraine War, the economy, and immigration.

The Ukraine War

While all parties support Ukraine, there are differing stances. Chancellor Scholz has been cautious about supplying certain weapons like ground-to-air missiles, unlike numerous other European countries. The AfD advocates for ending military aid to Ukraine and improving relations with Russia.

Economic Challenges

Economic growth and reforming the government’s debt brake, a constitutional spending limit, will be vital. Both the CDU, SPD, and Greens advocate for increased renewable energy, though they differ on implementation. The AfD opposes renewable energy subsidies and backs unlimited operation of coal and nuclear power plants.

Immigration

How to handle the influx of migrants remains a contentious issue. All major parties endorse enhanced border controls and migrant support. However, the AfD’s strident stance on complete border closures sets it apart.