Sunday, June 7, 2020

Corona Destroys Growth – Morning Briefing

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Good morning dear readers,

the economic wear marks of the Corona pandemic are as clear as feared. The leading companies expect in the second quarter Economic research institutes in their joint diagnosis, a slump in German gross domestic product 9.8 percent. This is the greatest shrinkage since quarterly values ​​from 1970 onwards are measured – and it is twice as large as the slump during the World financial crisis Beginning of 2009. In the whole of 2020, economic output is expected to change 4.2 percent decrease compared to the previous year. That’s a lot, but less than some economists had previously predicted.

The economic downturn is not without consequences for the labour market. According to the community diagnosis, the unemployment rate is set to 5.9 percent climb. Last year it was five percent. The number of Short-time workers should increase to 2.4 million. But it could get worse if the strict ones Exit restrictions cannot be relaxed after April 19. If the lockdown is extended by one month, growth will shrink by another one and a half percent this year. One can only hope that everyone in the Federal government read this passage in the report carefully.

For the current cover story, the Handelsblatt spoke to experts and wrote down conditions for a gradual return to normal.

The Chancellor has a public debate about easing security measures Angela Merkel expressly prohibited. The crucial question is: how does one succeed responsible return into freedom? Citizens have a lot of understanding for the current limitation of their Fundamental rights. But they need a perspective on when and how social and economic life will normalize again. In the current cover story “Security and Freedom”, the Handelsblatt spoke to many experts and wrote down conditions for a gradual return to normal. Required reading for anyone who wants to know how Lockdown can be ended gradually.

The question concerns many in Germany. But few politicians talk publicly about the subject because they don’t want to stab the Chancellor. Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia Armin Laschet, who wants to become CDU leader sometime after the corona crisis, becomes clear in the Handelsblatt interview: “We need a clear one Timetable, through which public and economic life gets going again. ”For a possible opening, clear rules for the right one would have to be distance and the right ones Protective measures be valid. Returning to normal is not going to be easy, but it is possible.

Laschet receives support from the Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn. The CDU politician holds first Steps from the corona standstill after Easter for possible. “We see a positive trend. But it has to steady, ”said Spahn in an interview with the Handelsblatt. In a free constitutional state, far-reaching restrictions of Fundamental rights “Only work as long as they are understood and accepted”. The sentence is as warning thought of the brakes in the easing debate.

The European Union faces a historical disgrace. Even after one Negotiating marathon until the early hours of the morning EU finance minister not looking for further help from the Euro rescue fund ESM in the fight against Corona. The question, under what conditions the billions flow, has the old conflicts torn between the northern and southern countries. A new attempt is to be made today. When, if not now, the member countries of the world want to prove that Europe is a continent of solidarity is?

Entrepreneur Reinhold Würth is concerned about the future of the European Union.

(Photo: Andy Ridder for Handelsblatt)

The entrepreneur Reinhold Würth is concerned about the current debates Future of the European Union. In an interview with the Handelsblatt, he accuses the federal government of “a certain small amount”. He argues for the controversial issues Eurobonds, in the amount of five trillion euros. “If we continue in peace and freedom want to live in Europe, then we can also for the debts of Italy or other recipient countries. “His argument: In the Würth group after all, be prepared to donate money to the Italian and Spanish subsidiaries if necessary. Würth’s message to politics: More power for Europe.

How the corona pandemic can be overcome is shown China. After two and a half months, the more than eleven million inhabitants of Wuhan move freely again. The motorways and express train station were reopened yesterday. There are still quite a few Residential district closed, and people were asked to go out as little as possible. But the first steps towards Chinese freedom have been made.

Senator Bernie Sanders has stepped out of the US presidential race.

And then there is Bernie Sanders. The applicant for the presidential candidacy of the Democrats announced his withdrawal yesterday. He couldn’t be responsible for continuing an election campaign that couldn’t be won for him, Sanders said in a speech about Corona via webcast was transferred. This clears the way for its intra-party competitor Joe Biden. Although it is much more popular with the Democrats, it has so far been noticed without a great idea. Around Donald Trump to replace Biden as US President must deliver more. The following sentence may also apply to him: Competition stimulates business and the brain.

Despite this special situation, I wish you a happy Easter. Think of the contact blocks so that the corona crisis will soon end.

Best regards

your
Sven Afhüppe
Editor-in-chief

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